You say Iraq. I say Iran. Let's call the whole thing off.

From the desk of Dr. Charles A. Meconis, Senior Research Fellow (Ret.) at the Institute of Global and Regional Security Studies, Jackson School of International Studies, University of Washington. The following is his recent submission to Washington Physicians for Social Responsibility.


What is all this fuss about Iran?

Reports of US planning for war with Iran, allegedly to stop that country from acquiring nuclear weapons, have dominated the news recently. Most notably, Pulitzer-prize winning journalist Seymour Hersh, writing in the April 17 issue of New Yorker, quotes many sources close to the Bush Administration, most of them anonymous, indicating that the plans for attacking Iran go beyond rhetoric, and are intensifying. According to Hersh's sources, one option “on the table” is a massive pre-emptive air strike at Iran's nuclear facilities using so-called “tactical” nuclear weapons such as the B-61-11 bomb.

In reaction, President Bush and Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, have both described the article and other news reports as "wild speculation" and “fantasyland”.

But Mr. Hersh is standing by his story. Read the full New Yorker article: The Iran Plans

Are these report true? Is war with Iran imminent or inevitable ? What can and should we do?

The best “reality check” on these reports and denials thus far can be found in this week’s Washington Post blog by military intelligence expert William M. Arkin at http://blogs.washingtonpost.com/earlywarning/ Arkin once worked as Hersh’s researcher.

Arkin concludes that the reports are basically accurate: since May 2003, the U.S. military’s many planning agencies have indeed been engaged in intense “contingency” planning for an air attack on Iran, including covert operations. He finds that use of tactical nukes is indeed among the options being considered, but he also confirms Hersh’s reports about deep opposition to the use of nuclear weapons at the highest levels of the U.S. Military—the Joint Chiefs of Staff. But Arkin has furthermore uncovered the extent of planning for a major ground campaign against Iran as well.

Is war with Iran imminent?

No, says Arkin, but he also points out that an air attack could be mounted in as little as 12 hours.

Is war with Iran inevitable?

Not yet. Arkin does not believe we have yet reached a “tipping point” equivalent to the late summer of 2002 when the decision to go to war with Iraq was a done deal. But he agrees with Hersh that the inner circle of the Bush Administration is committed to “regime change” and time is running out for this Administration to accomplish that.

What can and should we do?

Hersh notes that at present there is little opposition in Congress to the plans for attacking Iran.

CONTACT YOUR CONGRESS PEOPLE NOW AND SAY “NO IRAN WAR!. USE DIPLOMACY TO STOP IRAN’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM.”
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"If we make no effort to change direction, we will end up where we are headed." -- Chinese Proverb